Thursday, December 6, 2012

Wall Street Daily: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Real Estate Recovery: See it, Believe it... and Then Invest in It!

(Wall Street Daily) A smart investor recognizes that the market is a forward-looking beast. He also knows that the market regularly scales "walls of worry," and that prices rise before everyone realizes a recovery is imminent.

The average investor? Well, he sits on the sidelines and, in turn, misses out on significant profits.

Don't believe me? Look no further than the real estate sector for proof...

Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful


Back in February, when I predicted the real estate market hit rock bottom, my inbox overflowed with venom for making such a preposterous claim. Hundreds of readers unsubscribed, too.

Of course, homebuilding stocks were already telegraphing a recovery. But nobody wanted to believe it because home prices were still falling across the country. They let the "wall of worry" blind them from the opportunity.

As I wrote at the time, though, "prices are going to be the last thing to bottom out." Well, they just officially did.

The latest reading of the Case-Shiller House Price Index went positive on a year-over-year basis for the first time in 21 months.

Now that people can finally see the real estate recovery, they're starting to believe it, too. It's not just investors, either. It's the mainstream press.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Mortgage rates fall to record lows again


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) By Les Christie -- The nation's extremely favorable mortgage rates sank even lower this week, setting records for both the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate loans.
  
The 30-year fell to 3.31% from 3.34% last week, according to Freddie Mac (FMCC, Fortune 500), the government controlled mortgage backer. The 15-year rate averaged 2.63%, compared with 2.65% a week ago.
According to Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage information company HSH Corp., the current conditions mean it may make sense for current mortgage borrowers and new homebuyers to look at shorter-term loans.
  
Related: Most affordable cities for buying homes
"If you're looking for Black Friday deals and door-busters, it's pretty hard to beat the savings," he said. "To really rack up savings, you might also consider a purchase or refinance using a loan with a term shorter than the traditional 30 years."
  
The numbers add up like this: Homeowners current paying off 30-year loans with rates of 4% spend about $1,098 a month in mortgage payments on a $200,000 balance, paying a total interest cost of $143,739.
Refinancing at 2.63% for 15 years would cost them about $250 a month more, but they would wind up paying just $42,250 in total interest and their payments would end years earlier.
Refinancing into another 30-year loan at 3.31% would cost homeowners only $877 a month, saving $221 from the existing loan. But the total interest paid would come to $115,725 over the life of the loan, a difference of more than $73,000 compared with the 15-year mortgage.
Related: 'I'm trapped in a high-rate mortgage
Low interest rates are very helpful to the housing market by slashing the monthly costs of ownership, which homebuyers often focus on when calculating if they can afford to buy a home. With home prices also down about 30% from their recent peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and employment numbers gradually improving, affording a home has rarely been easier.
The report adds to other recent good news for housing markets, with existing home sales, prices and new construction all recording upticks.

How to Use Comparable Sales to Price Your Home

Before you put your home up for sale, use the right comparable sales to find the perfect price.
How much can you sell your home for? Probably about as much as the neighbors got, as long as the neighbors sold their house in recent memory and their home was just like your home.

Knowing how much homes similar to yours, called comparable sales (or in real estate lingo, comps), sold for gives you the best idea of the current estimated value of your home. The trick is finding sales that closely match yours.
What makes a good comparable sale?
Your best comparable sale is the same model as your house in the same subdivision—and it closed escrow last week. If you can’t find that, here are other factors that count:

Location: The closer to your house the better, but don’t just use any comparable sale within a mile radius. A good comparable sale is a house in your neighborhood, your subdivision, on the same type of street as your house, and in your school district.

Home type: Try to find comparable sales that are like your home in style, construction material, square footage, number of bedrooms and baths, basement (having one and whether it’s finished), finishes, and yard size.

Amenities and upgrades: Is the kitchen new? Does the comparable sale house have full A/C? Is there crown molding, a deck, or a pool? Does your community have the same amenities (pool, workout room, walking trails, etc.) and homeowners association fees?

Date of sale: You may want to use a comparable sale from two years ago when the market was high, but that won’t fly. Most buyers use government-guaranteed mortgages, and those lending programs say comparable sales can be no older than 90 days.

Sales sweeteners: Did the comparable-sale sellers give the buyers downpayment assistance, closing costs, or a free television? You have to reduce the value of any comparable sale to account for any deal sweeteners.
Agents can help adjust price based on insider insights
Even if you live in a subdivision, your home will always be different from your neighbors’. Evaluating those differences—like the fact that your home has one more bedroom than the comparables or a basement office—is one of the ways real estate agents add value.

An active agent has been inside a lot of homes in your neighborhood and knows all sorts of details about comparable sales. She has read the comments the selling agent put into the MLS, seen the ugly wallpaper, and heard what other REALTORS®, lenders, closing agents, and appraisers said about the comparable sale.
More ways to pick a home listing price
If you’re still having trouble picking out a listing price for your home, look at the current competition. Ask your real estate agent to be honest about your home and the other homes on the market (and then listen to her without taking the criticism personally).

Next, put your comparable sales into two piles: more expensive and less expensive. What makes your home more valuable than the cheaper comparable sales and less valuable than the pricier comparable sales?
Are foreclosures and short sales comparables?
If one or more of your comparable sales was a foreclosed home or a short sale (a home that sold for less money than the owners owed on the mortgage), ask your real estate agent how to treat those comps.
A foreclosed home is usually in poor condition because owners who can’t pay their mortgage can’t afford to pay for upkeep. Your home is in great shape, so the foreclosure should be priced lower than your home.

Short sales are typically in good condition, although they are still distressed sales. The owners usually have to sell because they’re divorcing, or their employer is moving them to Kansas.
How much short sales are discounted from their market value varies among local markets. The average short-sale home in Omaha in recent years was discounted by 8.5%, according to a University of Nebraska at Omaha study. In suburban Washington, D.C., sellers typically discount short-sale homes by 3% to 5% to get them quickly sold, real estate agents report. In other markets, sellers price short sales the same as other homes in the neighborhood.

So you have to rely on your REALTOR’s® knowledge of the local market to use a short sale as a comparable sale.


Read more: http://buyandsell.houselogic.com/articles/how-use-comparable-sales-price-your-home/#ixzz2EC0hhvd4

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Miami-Dade pending home sales spiked in October

 
Despite a dearth of homes and condos on the market in Miami-Dade County, pending sales in October rose 18 percent from the prior month and 67 percent year over year, according to the Miami Association of Realtors.
 
The number of pending sales was 4,172 in October compared with 2,488 a year earlier, the group said.
 
Prospective buyers are more confident about investing in a home after seeing a string of steady price increases in Miami, and they want to get in before they miss out.
“There is a general feeling of optimism that the market is coming back,” said Carole Smith, a Realtor with Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell in Miami.
 
With healthy demand and little on the market, properties are selling for closer to their asking price and sellers aren’t inclined to offer discounts, agents say. For October, single-family homes in Miami-Dade sold at 95 percent of the original listing price, while condos went for 97.1 percent of original listing price on average, the Miami Realtors said. In October 2011, single family homes fetched 91 percent of listing price on average and condos got 93.6 percent of listing price.
 
Pending sales are a forward indicator based on the number of contracts signed over a given period.
“People are feeling much better,” said Anthony Askowitz, a real estate agent with RE/MAX Advance Realty in Miami, who sees strong sales momentum heading into the end of the year. “People want to get in to their homes before the holidays.”
 
For some buyers looking for a permanent residence, he added, getting in by year-end means an opportunity to declare homestead exemption for a property tax break in 2013.
“Many of our sales now are happening within a matter of days,” said Ronald Shuffield, president of EWM in Coral Gables, who sees more buyers in the market than last year. “People are sensing that prices are going up and they want to get something before the prices go up more.”
While a high percentage of Miami residences still have negative equity, the recent rise in prices means more homeowners who have been underwater with their mortgage finally are seeing an opportunity to sell.
 
The inventory of residences for sale in Miami-Dade inched up 1.5 percent in October. Still, it’s a seller’s market with just a 4.2-month supply of homes for sale in the county. A for-sale supply of six to nine times the number of homes sold in a month is considered a balanced market.
“I think more properties will come on the market in January,” said EWM’s Smith.
 
“The Miami real estate market is poised for another record year that would surpass the all-time sales record set in 2011,” Martha Pomares, chairman of the board of the Miami Association of Realtors, said in a statement. “Strong demand persists despite the shortage of housing inventory, and listings are increasingly selling at a more rapid pace, driving in significant price appreciation.”
The number of single-family homes that went under contract in October leaped 85 percent while pending sales of condos climbed 55.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the Miami Association of Realtors

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/29/3118839/miami-dade-pending-home-sales.html#storylink=cpy

Not just a hotel, Miami Beach Edition to include residences, too

 







With his latest project, he’s planning to make an even bigger splash — and this time, he’s including a bowling alley and ice skating rink.
 
In an interview Monday, Schrager revealed some details about the Miami Beach Edition, a project he’s working on in partnership with Marriott International that is set to debut in early 2014.
    
The property, at the site of the old Seville Beach hotel at 2901 Collins Avenue, will include 26 high-end residences designed by architect John Pawson, restaurants, a nightclub, bowling alley and ice skating rink, Schrager said. The residential units will be on the top two floors of the hotel, which will have about 250 rooms, and in a new 11-story building.
 
“The hotel and residences are kind of dedicated to the good life and to make staying in Miami really easy and effortless and make it the art of living rather than the job of living,” he said.
 
One Edition is already open, in Istanbul. Plans have been announced for others in London, New York, Bangkok, Abu Dhabi, Los Angeles and India.
 
Schrager is so enthusiastic about the residential portion of the Miami Beach project that he’ll own one of the apartments himself. The price per square foot for the units, which will range from one to four bedrooms, will be around $3,000, he said.
 
That price would put the project in the top tier of Miami Beach condos, said Peter Zalewski, a principal at Bal Harbour-based real estate consultancy Condo Vultures. He said 17 condos are on the market for at least $3,000 a square foot.
 
“It’s a price that’s kind of in the stratosphere,” he said.
Schrager said three units have already sold; some information about the project is online at www.miamibeacheditionresidences.com.
 
He said he always has been confident about the prospects for the Miami Beach Edition, though it was announced in July 2010 when tourism was crawling out of the recession and few projects were planned. But now, Schrager said, he senses Miami entering a promising new stage — and is looking for new projects here.
 
“Now I think Miami is no longer just a vacation city,” he said. “It’s is an international 24-hour gateway city that people all around the world want to live in.”

  


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/12/03/3125339/not-just-a-hotel-miami-beach-edition.html#storylink=cpy

Monday, December 3, 2012

National Luxury Market Report

ILHM National Luxury Market Report

National Summary Charts

The charts below show the 7-day and 90-day rolling averages for median list price, days on market, and inventory for the national composite--a snapshot of how, together, the luxury markets around the country are performing.
(For additional data and analysis, download the PDF executive summary report in the sidebar above)

















Altos Research developed the Market Action Index (MAI) for an at-a-glance measurement of market conditions. The MAI is a barometer of real estate supply and demand. A value above 30 indicates demand is relatively robust, we call that a Seller's Market. Below 30 is a Buyer's Market.Also use the Market Action Index trends as a leading indicator for prices. When markets fall persistently into Buyer's territory prices will likely follow.





The definition of this market stat is:
"Percentage of homes on the market that have decreased their asking price at least once over the past 90-day period."
In any market, even in strong seller's markets, there will always be some number of properties that will decrease their listing price. These may include sellers that drastically overpriced their homes just "to see what they could get" or homes that simply entered the market at a price level above what the market will bear.
Even in strong seller's markets, the Percent Price Decreased will be 10-12%, so some repricing of individual properties is common in any market. In weaker markets, this value begins rise into the teens, 20%, 30%, and higher. Percent Price Decreased is an incredibly insightful gauge of demand levels in the residential housing market. This statistic illustrates how many listed properties may be behind the "price curve" - listed at a price above what the market is willing to pay for similar properties.
However, "Percent Price Decreased" alone does not indicate the overall health of a particular market. This statistic should be combined with other market stats to determine the overall direction of a market.

Price for Miami Luxury Home is up and up

ILHM Luxury Housing Report Detail: Miami


The charts below show the 7-day and 90-day rolling averages for list price, days on market, and inventory for the metro area's luxury market (e.g. top 10 zips with median prices above $500k)

















ilhm-miami vs National

The charts below compare the ilhm-miami luxury market with the ILHM National Luxury Market Index and show 90-day rolling averages for Median List Price and Days on Market.




The chart below shows the Altos Market Action Index for the metro area's luxury market and the National Index.